Helm-Deltapoll Conservative Voter Monitor / Wave 3

The third wave of the Helm-Deltapoll Panel of 2019 Conservative voters has now been completed.

The full tables may be accessed here.

Fieldwork for the survey was carried out by Deltapoll between 13 to the 20 June, in the midst of the election campaign, which will reach a conclusion on 4 July. The sample was, as before, 1,511 adults who voted Conservative in 2019. Previous respondents were invited to take part again and 183 did so.

1.      The 2019 Conservative coalition is fracturing and support for Reform is hardening

Just 46% of 2019 Conservatives intend to vote for Rishi Sunak’s party on 4 July, down from 54% in February and 49% in March.  This broadly matches their decline in the national polls and with no other changes would be consistent with a national share of about 20%.

The percentage switching to Reform UK is up from 19% to 24%, Labour down one to 15%, and undecideds unchanged at 10%.  All of this is again consistent with national polls.

As would be expected in an election campaign, the percentage absolutely sure of who they would vote for (which would include some postal voters who have voted already) is up from 53% to 61%, and is at 75% among Tory voters. Among switchers to Reform, that figure is 69% - up from 51% in March – suggesting that support in that direction is both growing and hardening, perhaps reflecting the influence of Nigel Farage, who assumed the leadership of the party at the outset of the election campaign and who our previous survey found commands powerful support among right-leaning voters.

Only 60% of Labour voters say they are absolutely sure who they will vote for, with 34% saying they may change their mind.  Given the balance of their responses on other questions this may indicate they are considering Reform as much as returning to the Tories – although it is also notable that Labour switchers are strongly in favour of a Starmer Government.

2.      2019 Tories are completely divided on the party’s future direction

Our survey found that those who backed the Conservatives in 2019 are now polarised on the question of what approach the party should take if it loses the election. 43% say that, if they lose the election, the Tories “should adopt a more right-wing approach similar to that of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party” versus 41% who say they “should adopt a more centrist approach, similar to that of David Cameron’s Conservative government”.

Looking more closely at the responses, we can see that there is a very strong polarisation of views among Reform switchers, of whom 84% want to see the Tories move in a Faragist direction. Among Loyal Tories and switchers to other parties, over half prefer a more centrist posture, with Undecideds similarly balanced. In each case however, large proportions also favour a more right-wing approach in the vein of Reform. It is clear that in the wake of electoral defeat - especially if that defeat involves Nigel Farage entering parliament and his Reform party scoring a high number of votes - the Conservative party will experience serious internal divisions and disagreements on how to respond.

Similarly, they are roughly evenly split over whether Rishi Sunak should resign in the near term or remain for months or even indefinitely. Loyal Tories lean strongly towards him staying – with 27% wanting him to carry on indefinitely – but 59% of switchers to Labour and 60% of switchers to Reform believe he should resign straight away.

Of the alternatives, only Penny Mordaunt commands any significant support to take over as leader (25%), slightly more than second-placed Don’t Know (20%) and third-placed None of These (19%) – but significantly more than Kemi Badenoch who, despite being regularly touted as a future leadership contender, scores just 4%. Suella Braverman scores 10% overall but 24% among those now backing Reform – slightly higher than Mordaunt among that group.

These findings underline how difficult it will be for the Conservatives to come together in opposition and suggest that the party will struggle to unite around any new leader or strategy for political reconstruction.  Returning to data in our previous surveys, what continues to lurk beneath all of this is a deep divide caused – or perhaps exacerbated – by Brexit, which remains unresolved.

3.      Protest – not hunger for change – is driving 2019 Tories

Among those not voting Conservative, general disillusionment with their performance in government is by far the most popular explanation with 52% choosing it.  Only 13% say they prefer the policies of another party (21% of switchers to Reform and 7% of switchers to Labour) while just 17% say they want a change of government (29% of Labour switchers). Of course some of those who chose disillusionment may agree with some of the other statements as well, but it suggests that protest is much the most salient dynamic rather than a sense of “Time for a Change”.

By 60%-20%, those with a view preferred a Sunak Conservative government to a Starmer one (including 50% of Reform switchers), although with only 1% of Labour switchers preferring Sunak and 55% strongly preferring Stamer it suggests those switchers are solid.

4.      Little love for Labour

Labour switchers generally stand out from the rest of the sample which is otherwise at best ambivalent about Labour.  Large pluralities of Loyal Tories, undecideds and all other switchers believe that they would be worse off under a Starmer government – indeed that view has grown since our last survey in March.

That perhaps reflects the fact that the Tory campaign – much and rightly derided in many respects – has nonetheless enjoyed some cut-through in the area of policy.

We found widespread acceptance of some of the claims made by Rishi Sunak about what a Labour government would mean.  By large majorities 2019 Conservative voters agree that there will be a £2000 per year increase in taxes (66%), that Labour has no plan for illegal immigration (72%) and that under Starmer there will be a new tax on pensions (71%).  A smaller number believe that people will be forced to buy heat pumps and electric cars (46%). Only switchers to Labour really show significant scepticism about any of these assertions.

Yet despite landing these messages it is notable that the Conservatives are losing rather gaining ground even among voters most receptive to these arguments. This points to a deeper problem that they now face, with the general election just days away.

For, although a large majority of the people who backed them in 2019 would still rather see a Conservative than a Labour government elected, the Tories’ pitiful standing in the polls makes that option appear unavailable. And as Rishi Sunak is now finding, it is hard to get people to vote for a party that they think will lose an election – especially if they have alternative means of expressing their core political beliefs in the form of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

5.      Helm commentary

Commenting on the overall survey, Greg Cook of Helm Partners said:

“Our latest poll confirms that far from recovering Tory voters, Rishi Sunak has lost more of them during the campaign, principally to Reform.  His only hope for even a respectable result now rests on the possibility that there is an element of bravado among the Reform switchers and that their antipathy to Labour will bring at least some of them back.

“This represents by far the biggest fracturing of support for either main party in the last 80 years and the election of a Labour government looks certain.  But our survey shows that at least among 2019 Tories, even among those who are switching to Labour, it is still much more about a protest against the performance of the Tories than necessarily an enthusiasm for a change of government or confidence that Labour might do any better.”