Why are Conservative leadership contenders so reluctant to strike?
10 June 2022
By Declan McHugh
Boris Johnson is weak and diminished, and no longer the electoral asset he once was. But as Danny Finkelstein pointed out in the Times, following the confidence vote on Monday, he is paradoxically safer today than he was at the start of the week. One of the reasons for that is the failure of any alternative leader to make a serious pitch to replace the PM. Many of those who harbour such ambitions are clearly nervous about wielding the knife for fear of jeopardising any hope of wearing the crown. But perhaps there is another more fundamental reason for the restraint; a belief that the premiership at this moment is not so much a crown as a poisoned chalice.
Anyone taking over as Prime Minister now would have less than two years in the job before a general election must be held. They would take up the reins just as Britain enters a period of turmoil unknown since the 1970s. A summer of industrial action on the railways and enduring problems in the aviation sector means that months of transport misery are all but assured. Inflation is expected to climb to 10%, forcing a rise in interest rates that will further squeeze mortgage holders coming to the end of fixed rate deals.
Once the schools go back and the nights draw in, an autumn of discontent will blow over cold Britons as they reach for the thermostat just as energy prices leap once more. Even if inflation calms down in 2023, the forecast for little or no growth means ongoing economic pain for the country and those in charge. Such circumstances are hardly favourable for any incoming premier and it is difficult to see how the governing party will gain ground in the polls.
That said, the Conservative position is far from lost. The Labour party did okay in recent local elections but is not posting the sort of consistent electoral gains and extended poll leads that normally precede a change of government. Without making substantial progress in Scotland, which is not on the cards, it is hard to see the party recording the double-digit swing in England and Wales that it needs to form a majority. To put that in perspective, the swing to Labour in the 1997 landslide was 8.8%.
Labour would need to make massive progress – in the region of a 7% swing – just to get itself into a position to form a government in alliance with the Lib Dems and the SNP. Putting together a deal with the former should be easy; but the latter would be difficult if not impossible. So the prospect of a stable Labour or Labour-led government after the next election remains a long shot as things stand.
Yet Labour doing well enough, with the Libs, to deny the Tories power is a much more attainable aim. A swing of less than 4%, on current boundaries, would deprive the Conservatives of a majority. Of course they were denied one in 2010 and in 2017, but on both occasions were able to muster allies among the Lib Dems first and the DUP latterly. It will be impossible for them to win over the Liberals this time, and much harder to assemble anything with the DUP who only come into play if the arithmetic is very tight.
Stepping back and looking at the electoral landscape from the current vantage, a very possible outcome at the next election is a hung parliament where no stable government is likely to emerge. Another election, in fairly short order, may be the ultimate result.
Any prospective Conservative leader assessing that scenario may conclude that the best time to assume control of the party lies somewhere between those two elections; a point at which Boris Johnson surely would be removed, creating the opening for another Tory rebirth.