Keir Starmer’s hidden depths
14 June 2022
By Declan McHugh
To paraphrase Roy Walker, of Catchphrase fame, Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party might best be described as “good, but not great”. There’s been some solid progress with important local electoral advances and a consistent albeit undramatic lead in the national polls. Within the party he has reasserted control over the hard left and assembled a stronger shadow cabinet than has been the case for a number of years. But critics counter that Starmer has yet to present any clear vision for the country and failed to make any strong impression on the public; a fact reflected in opinion polls that give him a net-negative satisfaction rating.
Indeed, Starmer scores a lower satisfaction rating at this stage in his tenure as opposition leader than Blair, Cameron, Miliband, Corbyn, Smith or Kinnock. Only Michael Foot, among Labour leaders, recorded a poorer rating at this stage. Yet perhaps ‘satisfaction with the job he is doing’ is too crude a measure for assessing Starmer’s true standing with the public and how that might translate into electoral support. Digging beneath the surface of this headline metric and examining the public image of political leaders through the prism of a range of attributes, a more nuanced picture emerges.
This is what Ipsos Mori do with a long series of questions that ask respondents to identify which of a list of characteristics they think applies to a particular political leader. They did so most recently in May 2022, when the question was posed with reference to Starmer and Johnson.
Of eleven different leader attributes, Keir Starmer beat Boris Johnson (who has an even lower net satisfaction score) on all but three. Those where the PM enjoys an advantage include “has got a lot of personality”, where Starmer scores particularly poorly, as well as on being patriotic and “good in a crisis”. That should perhaps come as no surprise, given the PM dominates the political landscape in terms of his personality and has held the premiership through a pandemic and now in a time of war in Europe.
The PM, however, trails badly on the question of being “out of touch with ordinary people” – a failing that may be increasingly problematic given the worsening crisis in the cost of living.
But perhaps the most encouraging findings for the Labour leader relate to questions that give him a lead on “sound judgement” (+14), being a “capable leader” (+6), being a “good representative for Britain on the world stage” (+8) and being “more honest than most politicians” (+22). The first three of those suggest that, notwithstanding his lack of ‘personality’, the Labour leader commands respect with regard to his stature and capability.
The fourth is arguably the most interesting and suggests that Starmer has an important advantage in an area that may have special purchase in the current climate. Honesty is an attribute that the British public is not inclined to assign to politicians. Boris Johnson, who has been beset by claims that he lied about breaking lockdown rules, scores extremely badly on this measure – down to 9% after a ‘high’ of 27% in September 2020. Starmer has scored consistently well in this category for over two years, better than almost any other political leader going back to Callaghan. Only Corbyn scored consistently better on honesty but he didn’t enjoy some of the other leads that Starmer has over Johnson, and maybe context is key. At a time when the behaviour of politicians is under tremendous scrutiny, a sense that he is more honest than most might prove to be an important card for Starmer in the leadership stakes – assuming Durham Police don’t demolish that reputation and terminate his career first!
That said, the general picture leaves room for concern. Starmer’s ratings are not on an upward curve. Compared to December 2021, he has seen falls on having sound judgement (-7), being patriotic (-6), understanding the problems facing Britain, being more honest than most politicians, being a good representative for Britain on the world stage (all falling 5 points), and good in a crisis (-4). If one draws the comparison back further and measures the May 2022 scores against those early in his leadership of the party (September 2020), the decline is even steeper. That should be a matter of concern. Tony Blair’s ratings, although lower than Starmer’s in many areas, were nonetheless improving all the way from 1994 to 1997.
Overall, these ‘leader image’ surveys reinforce the view that Keir Starmer has to do more to convince the public that he is a Prime Minister in waiting. Yet they nonetheless suggest that he has some solid foundations on which to make that case. Boris Johnson attracts so much media attention that it would be difficult for any opposition leader to compete against him on ‘charisma’. But when it comes to practical leadership qualities that may come to the fore in an election, the perception of Starmer as more capable, more honest, and having greater stature and better judgement than the current Prime Minister may prove vital.