How to assess the Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton by-elections

23 June 2022

By Greg Cook

The two by-elections taking place today are situated in markedly different constituencies. One, in the West Yorkshire seat of Wakefield, will represent a test of Conservative strength in the so-called Red Wall of former Labour-held seats. The other, in the hitherto safe rural Tory seat of Tiverton and Honiton, will test their popularity in what is predictably being called the southern Blue Wall.

It’s likely that the Conservatives will lose both. But how serious a setback would that be and what sort of yardsticks should be used to measure the significance of the results?

Were the Conservatives to lose both these by-elections it would constitute the biggest electoral setback for the Tories since 2010, pointing on the face of it (as was never the case at any point between 2010 and 2015) to potential defeat at the next general election. But that would be far too crude a conclusion. In many ways defeat for the Tories in both Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton would represent little more than a return to political normality, i.e. when the Conservatives are in government and winning general elections they tend to lose in every other kind of election.

It is worth noting that over the 30 years in which they have been in government since 1979, the Tories have won just 19 of the 114 by-elections which have taken place, losing 30 of the 46 in Conservative-held seats. 

Recent years have seen some defiance of the political norm, notably the Tory gain from Labour in the Hartlepool by-election last year. That has begun to change. After a period in which both main parties were neck and neck, Labour now has a solid and sustained lead in the polls, the Liberal Democrats have had a modest resurgence and satisfaction ratings for the Tories and their leader are at the low end of the normal spectrum.

The current levels of dissatisfaction with the government are unusual and it will for example be useful to see whether levels of turnout in these by-elections are higher than would have been expected e.g. above 50 per cent in Wakefield and above 55 or even 60 per cent in Tiverton & Honiton. 

For Labour, a win in Wakefield, let alone one on a swing large enough theoretically to defeat the Tories in a general election would be a major step forward after 12 years of mediocrity and worse, which have brought one gain and three by-election losses. 

For the Liberal Democrats anything less than a 5,000 majority in Tiverton & Honiton would be tantamount to a victory for the Tories, a significantly worse result for them than North Shropshire where their local credentials were much weaker. 

But it is the swing in Wakefield which will really matter in this election and whether, like Vale of Glamorgan in 1989, Labour can outperform the polls and use that to build credibility that attracts more voters from the Tories.  A Labour share of the vote above 55 per cent would be the rough benchmark for that sort of result, especially were it to be the product of a turnout of 50 per cent or more.

The local elections in May suggested that, just as in 1989, the Tories are entering a period where tribal loyalty is their only source of support, which will make it difficult to win any by-elections and may lead to huge losses in next May’s elections. The Lib Dems will undoubtedly be able to profit from that, but can Labour?